Redline Pulse - October 2021

Posted by Darren Langille on Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 at 10:50am.

Redline Pulse - October 2021

“Mind boggling” comes to mind when talking about this September’s real estate in and around Calgary. It was certainly a “September to remember”!                                                                                               

The Sales Summary

The real estate market in the Calgary region was on fire again last month! We just completed our 2nd best September of all time! Only 2005 had a stronger September than we just had.

We finished with 2,162 sales for the month, which was 11 more homes than we did in August. That was a 27% increase from last year, and an even bigger jump from 2018 & 2019.

Here is the Calgary Real Estate Board graph showcasing the last 15 years. Here you will see just how extreme this September was when doing a broader comparison. Wow! Just... wow!

This resulted in another continued Sales-per-Day pace above 70, a pace that hasn’t slowed at all since early July. In fact, it increased slightly here in September to 72.

This next graph shows the Year-to-Date Sales we’ve achieved throughout all of 2021.

 

Once again you’ll notice how incredible 2021 has been in relation to nearly everything in recent memory. The only year in the last 10 with more YTD total sales was 2014. 

Now, all property types are acting a little differently, but all are positive.

Detached & Row Home sales increased nearly 20% over last year.

Semi-Detached Homes had a 37% improvement. 

And the best improvement year-over-year in September was the Apartment segment, which saw a 51% increase in its sales.

Calgary again recorded three quarters of the overall sales in our region, so let’s now look at what happened in other major markets:

Airdrie achieved 166 sales, a small drop from last month, which was about the same as last year.

Cochrane had 97 sales, which is an increase from last month and a big 37% bump from 2020.  

Chestermere had 45 sales and an increase of 22% over last year.

And Okotoks had 54 sales, which is actually a drop of 11% from 2020.

As you go from region to region you will find they are all performing very differently in terms of sales, but there’s also inventory and price changes to consider. So, you will want to be sure when making your buying & selling decisions that you are being well advised by somebody familiar with your local market.


The Inventory Story

As expected, we are seeing inventory fall. We started the month with 6,053 homes on the market and we finished September with 5,607. We started the month with 7% fewer homes on the market than the year prior, and now we sit with 10% fewer than last year. So, the inventory is falling quicker than in the prior year.

The reason is – as we discussed above – sales are pushing along at a continued mid-summer’s pace. And, as you look at this 15-year CREB graph you’ll see that we are now sitting with the lowest level of total active inventory at this point in the year since 2014.

Just like last month, we did see more listings come to market throughout the month than in 2020, but it's nowhere near enough to cause an inventory gain.

Here is the breakdown for the various property types:

Detached homes have the lower inventory position, sitting with 19% off last year’s figure.

Semi-Detacheds are next with 13% less.

Row Homes are at 8% less and the Apartments, despite having a great year-over-year sales gain in September, still sit with 5% more inventory than last year.

As I mentioned earlier, the surrounding markets are all acting differently and here is the quick breakdown:

Airdrie saw a net decrease in inventory to 237 from last month, 36% less than a year ago.

Cochrane also saw a net drop, down to 115 active properties, a near 50% drop in inventory from a year ago.

Chestermere only has 86 places on the market – a drop of 29% – and Okotoks sits with 82, a 44% decline.

So, because of the low inventory in Calgary’s satellite markets, they are fully in a seller’s market.  Be sure you are aware of this if you are actively buying or selling. Your strategy will need to be specific to your market.


The Pricing Picture

September’s benchmark sales price was $457,900. This represents an 8.6% increase over last year! Continued great news.

Just like last month, we did slide a little from last month, but this is simply what happens seasonally every year as the market slows from its peak spring months.

Here is the breakdown for each property type:

Detached – a 10% increase. 

Semi Detached – an 8.4% increase.

Row Homes – a 7% gain.

Apartments – a modest 1% increase.

Here is a graphic that shows how prices have changed, year-over-year, across the various districts in the city.

 

Again, due to the high number of apartments in the city centre, it is experiencing the lowest overall price gain. But, depending on your property type, you will want to learn the exact specifics for your real estate needs.  A detached home in the City Centre will not be experiencing gains as low as those for Apartments.  So, please take this as your “high level” viewpoint.

Here are the year-over-year price changes for the Detached markets around Calgary.

From the north you’ll see that Airdrie is seeing a 14% year-over-year price growth, but then if you look south you’ll see High River is sitting with just a 5.7% increase.  So again, be very certain you are reviewing data with your Realtor about your local area only.

The high point here for September looks to be Canmore, with a year-over-year gain of 16.4%. Wowza!

Summary

What does all of this really mean for you, anyways? Well, let me show you this little graph...

This graph is showing our overall “Months of Inventory”. What you will see here is that the red trend line, and my added red arrow, are pointing down.

When the months of inventory is dropping it means that the total Pace of Sales is increasing. Right now, based on how sales continue to blister along, and with our inventory dropping quite rapidly, it's continuing to put Calgary & area into a fast-paced real estate environment.

A seller’s market is typically below a Months of Supply value of 3.  As a whole, we’re sitting right now with 2.59 months of supply.

So, it looks as if we will have a very tight Q4 here in 2021. 

If you are a buyer, you’ll need to continue to be ready to pull the trigger quickly. If it's a well-priced home, or even a slightly over-priced home, you could end up in the type of multi-offers situation that we have been dealing with all year. 

If you are a seller, don’t get greedy, though. The band of price points before you shoot yourself in foot and end up “out of the market” isn’t too far from “fair market value”. So, keep doing what you’ve done all year – price fair, knowing that he buyers are out there and you will get a good offer soon and be well on your way to your next life plan.

Don’t price fairly and you’ll continue to wait and watch the market push past you.

I hope this information is helpful. All of us at Redline are here for you no matter your home type, location or price range – please reach out to be connected with a specialist for your needs.

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