by Scott Glover
on Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 at 2:33pm.
We’re breaking records like Usain Bolt & Michael Phelps!
In this report I’ll be summarizing the key real estate stats from October 2021, but also looking at some details that are almost always overlooked.
THE SALES SUMMARY
Like a fine wine, it seems like our real estate market is getting better with age. September was the 2nd best September of all time, and now October has one upped it. We just recorded the best October on record! 2,189 sales for the month! That’s a major “wowie” for this time of the year. What this means is that we continue to push 2021 towards one of the best-selling years in our entire history. So, when you ask “How’s the market”... it’s a pretty simple answer. It’s as good as it gets. Here is the Calgary Real Estate Board graph showcasing the last 15 years, so you can see where October 2021 stands relative to our recent history. To give you a little perspective, this number is nearly the exact same as we’ve seen since July. This means that if you are in the market to buy or sell, the market continues to act very much like the heat of the summer and isn’t slowing down like a typical “fall” to “winter” market. I’m having – and we at Redline are having – a whole bunch of conversations about “should I list now” or “should I wait till the spring”. All indications are that, if moving now is your goal, you’ll have no problem achieving a great sale price and in short order. The rest of the possible variables are likely very personal to you, so if you wanted further advice please contact us. Let me discuss the 4 different property types for you quickly. The best performing was the Apartments. In October that segment surpassed all others when comparing to the pace of last year. This is very good news because the apartment market has lagged behind much of the positive news in 2021, but it’s now catching up. Semi-Detached & Row Homes performed very similarly – about 25% improved from last year. And, in a rare showing, the Detached market suffered a bit in comparison, with the lowest improvement at 17% over October 2020. Now, one quick thing I wanted to share before moving on, is something I noticed in the last week of October... we saw a recent surge. The sales-per-day figure, which has been very consistent since July at around 70, bumped up all the way up to 80. This is just one of those things that I point out to give you full confidence in our market. Sales demand is not waning. And here are some figures from our surrounding communities to round out the story... Airdrie continues to roll, with a 25% improvement year-over-year. Cochrane saw a 15% increase. Okotoks, however, is seeing a slight decline in sales volume, with 5% less than this time last year.
THE INVENTORY STORY
I mentioned the word “waning” early in this update... well, that word sums up what’s going on with Inventory. We saw a reduction of 800 homes as active inventory throughout the month of October. We now sit at about 4,800 homes on the market. Here is the chart showing how we line up over the last 15 years. You’ll notice that we are now right near the bottom – only one other year that at this point had fewer homes on the market than we do right now. Now, this isn’t for the lack of new inventory coming to market. Despite this present state of “low” inventory, 2021 has actually had the highest number of new listings come to market in the last decade. Check it out in the following graph. This means that Greater Calgarians are super active in adding properties to the market, but – despite that – we are absorbing all that inventory due to our incredible sales pace. It’s again, simply put, a market that is “as good as it gets.” The market segments that have the lowest inventory remain the single-family markets (detached & semi-detached). So, they will feel the tightest out there when you’re looking for your next home. And we can’t talk about low inventory without discussing our major satellite markets. Airdrie, Cochrane & Okotoks all have near rock-bottom inventory averaging 40% less than last year. Between all 3 of those major satellite markets, there are only a combined 380 homes on the market right now!
THE PRICING PICTURE
Nothing but good news continues to roll in. October set a new record for benchmark sale price in 2021. We increased our benchmark price up to $460,100. This eclipses the number we set back in July, and it erases the last 3 months of slight downward adjustment. Year-over-year we have gained 8.9% in our homes’ equity for Calgary as a whole! So, congratulations everyone! That’s a $40,000 net worth growth for the average home owner. As we know, most people can’t save that much in a year, so big points for the power of home ownership! The one exception, however, is the apartment market. Year-over-year we’ve seen pricing be flat. But that should be welcomed in comparison to the constant downward slide of the last half decade or more.Here is the graph showing the pricing picture in various areas of the city. Green, green and more green positive arrows! And now the satellite regions. With this super low inventory in many of them, we could expect their year-over-year sales numbers to be continuing their upward push. And we are certainly seeing that in Airdrie this month, with a year-over-year improvement of almost 16%!
So, let me leave you with a few final thoughts. This is NOT just “realtor talk”... our real estate market is rooted in wide-spectrum positive fundamentals. We are well positioned for 2022 to be another phenomenal year. Right when I think we may be letting our foot off the pedal a bit, we aren’t. The demand in the market continues to push right along. This represents much more than just good news for real estate, it shows positive signs for Greater Calgary’s economic positioning as a whole. The strength of our market is absolutely reflected in the average price points, but beyond that – as we push up to the 500-600k mark, 600-800, 800-1mil, and 1 mil plus – the strength remains there, too. In fact, it’s actually in those higher cost brackets that we’re seeing even larger growth curves than in the average price ranges. This means we have a wide range of positive things happening. It’s not just average income earners, it’s not just the affordable housing & first-time buyers... it’s also happening in the leaders of our markets who own companies, who employ people & are building companies in our regions. I’m a data guy, I remind you, and I am a believer that Calgary is back on the map, and we have set a great foundation for success into 2022 & beyond as we evolve from the depths of the pandemic and our earlier low oil price concerns. So, with interest rates still at historical lows, make your moves, make them with confidence, and lock in to as much house as you can afford now, you’ll be handsomely rewarded in the future. I hope this information is helpful. You know all of us at Redline are here for you no matter your home type, location or price range and – now that we are partnered with a North America-wide real estate brokerage that gives us access to a growing network of more than 3,000 agents – think of us as your one-stop real estate shop!