Redline Pulse - June 2021

Posted by Darren Langille on Tuesday, June 15th, 2021 at 10:41am.

Is it possible that our Calgary & Area Real Estate Market has continued its historical run?

In this report I will discuss the key items you need to know about the market data just released for April 2021. 

The Sales Summary

Last month I shared that we had the biggest selling April of all time... yes, of all time! And before that, March was right up there with one of our best Marches ever, with only one time – back in 2007 – that beat the 2021 sales figures. 

So, did May continue on this blistering pace, or are we finally pulling back?

Against all odds, the momentum continues!

When looking at the following graph you’ll see that, yet again, we are right at the top of the heap!

 

We ended up selling a whopping 2,989 total homes in May. That is a 177% increase from 2020. 

This graph below shows how we are continuing to outperform last year’s figures. 

And then this graph shows it in another way, depicting the percentage of sales growth vs 2020.

All this equates to one of the – if not the most – impressive sales quarters in Calgary’s real estate history! 

Here is a Sales-Per-Day Chart from that shows how things have gone so far this year. And, as predicted last month in my market update, we have pushed past the April peak and are now seeing sales-per-day numbers decline as we roll into summer.  

Now, even though sales are declining, it is still a very, very healthy sales pace!

So, the sales picture is... things keep pushing along nicely. The pace has slowed a little, but it is still one of best sales paces of Calgary’s entire real estate history. 

The Inventory Story

We started the month of May with a total of 6,124 homes on the market. This was about 7.3% more total inventory than we’d had a year prior. 

We now finish off May 2021 with 6,783 available homes.This is an increase of about 600 homes, and a larger net increase than we saw in April.

Now we find ourselves with 13.6% more active listings than at this point in 2020.Here is a graph that shows that change...

Here is another graph that shows how the inventory continues to build despite Calgary having the best sales quarter on record. 

And here is where we sit (see below) when looking back at the last 15 years for total active inventory at the end of April.You’ll notice that on the earlier Total Sales graph we reached the highest May sales of all time. But on this inventory graph you’ll notice we aren’t at peak, but rather in the upper third of the last 15 years. As you can see, only a few years have had higher inventories, and it is this fact that is keeping the market from overheating. 

By reviewing the graph below you’ll see the arch of the listing pace that we’ve undergone since January 1st until now. As sales ramped up, so did listings. Then they continued and now we are adjusting back to a more modest level. However, we finished the month with an average of 138 listings per day, which is still an historically high number.

This will continue to help as the buyer demand continues to push right into summer. Again, keeping us healthy but not inflated.

I mentioned that we now have 13.6% more total inventory than at this point in 2020, but here are the differences in the 4 major property types:

Detached – 6% more 

Row Homes – 16% more

Semi Detached – 11% less

Apartments – 38% more

The Pricing Picture

The average benchmark sale price in the month of May was $455,200, a year-over-year increase of10.6%

This is also a month-over-month increase of about $5,000 (1%).

And with this, we have now rolled the clock back all the way to May 2014, eroding any overall benchmark loss we have had since our peak of 2014. 

This is a very welcome news story for all! 

Here is the graphic, below, that shows how prices have changed across the various districts in the city. 

And here are the breakdowns by property type:

Detached – up 12.2%

Row Homes – up 7.9%

Semi-Detached – up 9.9%

Apartments – up 4.9%

On top of the pure pricing story, the average sales price-to-list price ratio in the city was 98.6%. That means that, on average, people are only getting $6,200 off the list price. 

This percentage grows as you go outside the middle parts of the market, both into the lower priced condo market and into the higher-end markets trending into the luxury brackets.

Okay, so you now know about our Sales Summary, our Inventory Story & the Pricing Picture.
But that’s not the full story.

How does this all come together in terms of the “real” pace of the market? 

1. Sales to New Listing Ratio 

The higher the ratio, the faster and stronger the market is. 

On May 1st we sat with a ratio of 61%. On May 31st we finished the month with 72%.

What do you notice? Yes, the ratio got larger. 

That means that, despite the sales numbers dropping a bit from our peak, the market has actually gotten a little tighter. 

This means that the total number of new listings coming to market has dropped a little more than the demand has... putting us in a position, as we transition into June, where we continue to have a strong pace!

Here is a graph showing this change. 

This is different for each property type, as we’d expect... 

Detached - 75% from 68%

Row Houses - 64% from 60%

Semi Detached - 101% from 93%

And the Apartments - 53% from 33%

2. Months of Supply 

In this case it’s “the lower the number, the faster the number”. 

However, this stat is a little different than sales-to-list ratio above. It continues to factor in the total inventory that’s on the market, not just the 1-week trend of sales and listings. 

As we’ve gone through this strong selling season, we’ve also brought a huge amount of inventory to market, as well. 

So, as we calculate the current Months of Supply in our market, this number has actually gone up throughout May. 

We started May with 2.1 months of supply and ended the month at 2.3.  

So, despite it currently feeling tighter with sales vs listings per day ratio getting higher, we are seeing a larger months of supply number, as well. This, again, is helping to keep our market in a healthy range – not an overheated situation.  

Here are the numbers for the 4 property types:

Detached - 1.62 from 1.52

Row Homes - 2.6 from 2.4

Semi Detached - 2.03 from 1.62

Apartments - 5.73 from 5.57

So, the months of supply has grown consistently across all property types,.

This has resulted in the Days-on-Market declining all the way to an average 32 days on market. This is a 46% reduction from this same time in 2020.

And so, as a final summary...

Take a look at the Buyer Demand graph, below.

Despite having our record quarter, showings are still happening at close to their top pace for 2021. We are seeing an easing as we trend into summer, but for those looking to sell or buy in this market it will continue to feel busy. You will need to act fast as a buyer, and sellers will continue to achieve almost fully what they want (if priced fair).

Thank you for taking the time to wade with me through all of these facts and figures, and I hope it gives you a clearer picture of Calgary’s current real estate market.

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

 

 

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